UkraineProgressive Betting Strategies in Roulette
If a roulette strategy requires you to change the amount of your bet based on the outcome of the game, it falls into the ‘progressive’ category. This change can be either increasing or decreasing the bet amount. Either way, you are using a progressive system and most roulette strategies incorporate this mechanic to some extent. While progressive systems are quite popular with Australian players, we recommend that you read this guide to decide if they are the right choice for you.
Types & Main Principles of Progressive Betting
A roulette game can only result in one of two outcomes: you win or you lose. The type of bet is not important here, but most current strategies focus on even money bets because they offer a higher chance of winning. In any case, a progressive system will ask you to decrease or increase your bet based on these outcomes (win or loss). Depending on which is required, these systems can be divided into two basic categories.
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Negative Progression Strategies
The basic principle of negative systems is to increase the bet amount after a loss. The amount of the increase varies depending on the strategy used. For example, the famous Martingale requires you to increase the bet by 2x after each loss. These systems are based on the assumption that you will eventually win, and when that happens, the payout will be large enough to cover all your losses as you continued to increase the bet. When a win occurs, you usually go back to the initial bet amount and repeat the whole cycle. Here is an example based on Martingale with 4 spins:
- Spin 1: You started with 10 AUD, played the black bet and lost (total loss: 10 AUD)
- Spin 2: You continued with 20 AUD and lost again (total loss: 30 AUD)
- Spin 3: You continued with 40 AUD and won. The payout will be 40 AUD, meaning you have made a net profit of 10 AUD.
- Spin 4: Since you won, you repeat the same bet with 10 AUD (you return to the beginning of the cycle)
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Positive Progression Strategies
The basic principle of positive systems is to increase the bet amount after a win. They are designed so that when a player gets a winning streak, he can make the most of it. This time, you return to the initial bet amount when a loss occurs. Let's give an example for this too:
- Spin 1: You started with 10 AUD, played the red bet and win (total net profit: 10 AUD)
- Spin 2: You continued with 20 AUD and win again (total net profit: 30 AUD)
- Spin 3: You continued with 40 AUD and lost. We are now bankrupt with a -10 AUD net loss.
- Spin 4: Since you lost, you repeat the same bet with 10 AUD (you return to the beginning of the cycle)
Comparison of Positive & Negative Strategies
We ran two different simulations to see what these strategies would actually yield. In each simulation, the player started with a bankroll of 1,000 AUD and completed a total of 1,000 spins. You can see the results in the graphs below.
In the first graph showing negative progression, after the first 22 spins the player managed to make a profit and increase his bankroll to 1,140 AUD. However, unfortunately, he lost 6 times right after that and had to double his bet each time. For the same reason, on the 28th spin, his bankroll dropped to 510 AUD. This was not enough for him to continue, as he did not have enough money to increase his bet.
In the second graph showing positive progression, we can say that the results were a little better, as the win streaks between 50-75 and 125-150 increased the player's bankroll. However, when the simulation was completed, he had less money than he started with.
In general, win and loss streaks affect both strategies, but in different ways. Negative progression is affected by losing streaks a lot because it requires the bet to be increased after each loss, and even with a large bankroll, you do not have enough money to continue after 5-6 consecutive losses. In this respect, it is possible to say that it is riskier.
Positive progression needs winning streaks to work, and if these do not happen, it succumbs to the house edge over time, causing the bankroll to decrease. In addition, if winning streaks last too long, there is still a risk of depleting the bankroll. Therefore, variations such as increasing the bet only after every three wins may be more beneficial in the long run.
Practical Examples of Progressive Betting
The simulation we shared above was just a general example. We tested dozens of strategies based on positive and negative progression systems separately. You can find the results and more information below:
Negative progressions
- Martingale Strategy
- Grand Martingale
- d'Alembert System
- Fibonacci Strategy
- Fisher Strategy
- 4567 System
- 64% System
- Hollandish System
- Piquemouche Strategy
- Triple Martingale
- Six Line Quattro
- ATM System
- Bally's System
- Nine Strategy
- Eddie Strategy
- Cascading Strategy
Positive progressions
Where Progressive Systems Fall Short
Both systems have common disadvantages:
- They cannot beat the house edge. Like any other strategy, they succumb to the house edge in the long run: no matter which one you use, if you continue playing after making a profit, you will eventually lose.
- They do not take randomness into . In roulette, each spin is independent of the other and all probabilities are reset with each spin. There is no such thing as a losing or winning streak, only luck. Systems based on streaks do not work for this reason.
- They are not suitable for real-life conditions. These systems may work if you have an unlimited bankroll and are playing a game with no table limits, but this scenario does not apply in real life.
